DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/31 11:00
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is flat to 1 cent lower, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher, and wheat is
1 cent lower to 3 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 125 points. The dollar
index is 5 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed
with crude flat. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mostly higher
with gold up $25.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade remaining on the
summer lows with favorable weather, and further new crop sales of 114,300
metric tons sold to Mexico. Ethanol margins are a little narrower with the
weakness in energies and the end of summer driving season looming. Basis has
remained fairly flat in recent days, with isolated pockets of pre-harvest
strength. On the September contract, trade continues to have resistance at the
gap level from earlier in the month at $3.36, with chart support at the lower
Bollinger Band at $3.13.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with light buying as the
August contract enters delivery with rumors of more export business getting
done. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. Demand will
need to be the driver of rallies with weather threats limited. The ral remains
at the upper point of the recent range vs. the dollar, which should keep new
crop interest robust. USDA also announced 222,000 metric tons of soymeal to
Philippines. The September chart now has resistance at the 20-day at 8.90 which
we are testing at midday, and support the lower Bollinger Band at 8.74.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher at midday with trade finding
light buying as the back and forth pattern continues with primary support from
the weaker dollar and the end of harvest pressure. The ruble is losing ground,
but harvest will keep bushels moving out of the Black Sea area short term with
added acres offsetting yield trends in spots. Kansas City is at a 91-cent
discount to Chicago with spreads back to the top end of the range, while
Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent discount with slight weakness in the
intermonth spreads. Kansas City September chart support is the recent low at
$4.23 3/4, with the 20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.45,
which is we are just below this morning.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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